Publications

Publications from the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

Integrated Infrastructure: Cyber Resilience in Society report can be downloaded from Lockheed Martin's website here.

The Erebos Business Blackout Scenario report and its appendices can be downloaded from Lloyd's website here.

The World City Risk Index website can be found via this page.

  • Cambridge Global Risk Outlook for 2017 The Cambridge Global Risk Outlook for 2017 launches the Centre’s new index, the Cambridge Global Risk Index, which analyses the exposure to shocks of the global economy against a calculated baseline and provides an overview of risk for the world’s economy for the next 10 years.
  • A Risk Analysis Retrospective on the 2015 Paris Attacks This working paper presents impact analysis conducted in the wake of the November 2015 Paris Attacks, based on contemporary modelling done by the Centre for Risk Studies. An October 2016 revision examines the real-world economic damage and changing threat landscape in the West.
  • Integrated Infrastructure: Cyber Resiliency in Society With the increasingly interconnected nature of our critical national infrastructure, the impact of a cyber attack on a power distribution network could be wide-ranging and costly. In collaboration with Lockheed Martin, we examine the economic impact of an attack against the UK power distribution system in the Southeast.
  • Helios Solar Storm Scenario An exploration of the economic and business impacts of a significant space weather event, creating a geomagnetic disturbance that generates GICs capable of damaging and destroying EHV transformers in the Northern hemisphere.
  • Managing Cyber Insurance Accumulation Risk A framework for setting risk appetite and evaluating PML scenarios in cyber insurance risk. The report describes five cyber loss processes and scenarios for managing accumulation risk.
  • Unhedgeable Risk: How Climate Change Sentiment Impacts Investment Commissioned by the Cambridge Institute of Sustainability Leadership (CISL) Investment Leaders Group (ILG), this groundbreaking report looks at the economic and financial impacts of climate risk modelled over the next five years.
  • Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v1.0) Published as a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures, incorporating feedback from previous consultation rounds and acknowledgements of contributors.
  • Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.9) Third consultation document for the development of a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures, incorporating feedback from previous consultation rounds.
  • Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.5) Second consultation document to develop a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures. Includes market practice review.
  • Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.1) Principles First consultation document on the principles for developing a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures.
  • High Inflation World Financial Catastrophe Stress Test An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme High Inflation World financial catastrophe. Ecological and political pressures lead to a sudden shock to global food and oil supplies causing prices to spiral uncontrollably worldwide.
  • Eurozone Meltdown Financial Catastrophe Stress Test An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme Eurozone Meltdown financial catastrophe. The sudden exit of Italy from the Eurozone triggers a cascade of sovereign debt defaults in vulnerable European states.
  • Dollar Deposed Financial Catastrophe Stress Test An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme Dollar Deposed financial catastrophe. The rapid development of the Chinese domestic economy ultimately destabilizes the value of the dollar. The Chinese renminbi supplants the greenback as the reserve currency of choice.
  • Global Property Crash Financial Catastrophe Stress Test An illustration of the risks posed by a plausible but extreme Global Property Crash financial catastrophe. A sudden loss of confidence in the boom markets of South East Asia triggers a housing market collapse that impacts mortgage and non-mortgage assets worldwide.
  • Lloyd's Business Blackout Scenario Scenario of a cyber attack on the US electricity grid causing a major power outage in the Northeastern United States, for Lloyd's.
  • Millennial Uprising Social Unrest Stress Test Scenario The nature of social unrest has changed significantly since the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street. This report proposes a stress test scenario of a widespread uprising, fueled by youth unemployment, for use in business and policy-making.
  • A Taxonomy of Threats for Complex Risk Management The development of the Cambridge Risk Framework, identification of threats and emerging risks, and the use of the framework in defining stress test scenarios.
  • Ebola Contingency Scenario This working paper presents a ‘Contingency’ scenario for the economic impact of possible Ebola outbreaks in the United States and Europe, based on upper bounds of published epidemiological projections from the West Africa epidemic of 2014.. This scenario is offered as a contribution to improving business resilience.
  • China-Japan Conflict Stress Test Scenario A review of geopolitical conflict as a threat to modern business, and a stress test scenario of a conflict in Southeast Asia for use in business and policy-making.
  • Sybil Logic Bomb Cyber Catastrophe Stress Test Scenario A risk framework for considering systemic cyber threats and a stress test scenario of a cyber catastrophe for use in business and policy-making.
  • São Paulo Virus Pandemic Stress Test Scenario Infectious diseases continue to pose a major societal threat. This report proposes a stress test scenario of a pandemic for use in business and policy-making.
  • Organised Crime - Piracy This document presents a profile of the Macro-Catastrophe threat type 'Organised Crime - Piracy'.
  • Freeze This document presents a profile of the Macro-Catastrophe threat type 'Freeze'.
  • Social Unrest This document presents a profile of the Macro-Catastrophe threat type 'Social Unrest' (note: this paper is a work-in-progress).
  • Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph Armed conflicts between states litter the records of history. Wars have been fought for a multitude of reasons, however these can be fractured into main three strands: political ambitions, economic motives and ideological differences. This monograph summarises each of these drivers, and assesses their importance in the wider context of the balance of power within the international system.
  • Human Pandemic Threat Monograph Human pandemics are infectious disease outbreaks that spread internationally and cause death and illness in human populations, including influenza pandemics, emerging infectious diseases and re-emergent disease epidemics.
  • Cyber Threat Monograph The cyber threat landscape is evolving with new aspects of the threat emerging all the time. This report examines the risk from a business perspective. We have built a framework for classifying cyber threat and compiled a database of significant past attacks. We examine approaches to measuring vulnerabilities to attacks and whether the risk has industry sector and geographic variations.